On the weekend of the hapless SNP conference is there anything a group of determined and clever SNP activists can do to save the SNP from almost certain defeat in 2026?
It is too late to make changes this year, so moves will have to be made at the conferences in 2025.
The main problem is the SNP leadership and establishment will fight back hard and will not play fair.
The ruling clique will not give up power easily, they will be ruthless even to the extent of changing the rules to win, which since the NEC controls most of the rules they will be able to do.
Can some able SNP politicians lead the way?
The constitution gives the Leader the tools to ensure their supporters are promoted and any potential rivals or rival groupings can be disadvantaged. This is done through the party machine. Supporters are rewarded with early vetting decisions, involvement, and promotion at party events and paid party positions.
This will keep the politicians and aspiring politicians in line and can be used to even more powerful effect in the run-up to Holyrood 2026.
The MSPs, aspiring MSPs, and ex-MPs will be jockeying for the limited key constituencies and the top list spots. It won’t be a good career move to rock the boat.
SNP members and activists should support the popular and genuinely 'committed to independence' candidates, to secure the best slots. So, at least after getting hammered in 2026, Holyrood is not full of the most unlikeable, unpleasant SNP MSPs who voters blame for failing Scotland.
Could a second 'Good Guys' campaign see activists gain key positions on the NEC and the committees?
They can try.
Of course, the leadership will have their favoured candidates. The Business Convener, is in charge of Conference speakers, can allocate numerous slots to these favourites to increase their profile and give them a significant advantage over the activists.
The Leadership control the party machine which allows the leadership direct communication with members. The activists will not have similar access nor a right of reply to any communications from the Leadership.
Assuming the activists win these elections, can they gain control of the NEC?
We saw what happened to the 2020 ‘Good Guys’. It did not end well.
The NEC is a large body of 44 members. This includes 9 representatives of the affiliated organisations. Almost a third of the NEC is not elected by National Conference.
The leadership can marginalise any member of the NEC including Office Bearers. And they can prevent members from doing their job. An example is in 2021 when members of the Finance and Audit committee were refused access to the books.
What are the chances of winning a motion on an independence strategy?
It will make no difference.
The party Leader has sole and total power over policy – both in the manifesto and in government.
The National Conference notionally remains the supreme policy-making body, in that policies passed by Conference become party policy, but there is no linkage between party policy and policies in the manifesto. There is no mechanism for members to force policies into the manifesto. There is no requirement to pursue party policies when in government.
As the SNP Constitution puts power firmly in the hands of the Leadership, we could try to restore democracy to the members. What are the chances of winning a motion for constitutional change?
Any amendments to the constitution require a two-thirds majority of delegates. This is a high bar without support from the leadership/ platform.
That is if the motions even make it to the conference. The Conference Committee decides what motions to put forward for debate, it will be under the control of the Leadership.
The activists could start here and put up some ‘good guy’ candidates next year to ensure constitutional amendments make it to the conference floor, but the change will have no effect until 2026 (too late).
There are 453 SNP councillors, 63 MSP and 9 MPs and staff (we can call these people the payroll vote). The SNP leadership can call on the payroll to back them. The Payroll and most of the activist layer of the SNP are now predominantly devolutionist and Sturgeonite. Those that have not toed the party line have been weeded out.
There will likely be around 500 ‘payroll’ delegates. Therefore a minimum of 1000 activists would be required just to outvote the payroll.
What other problems is there?
There is a personal cost for going against the leadership. The Party may use personal attacks and smears so anyone involving themselves in this would be advised to delete their social media history on X and remove anything from Facebook and other channels that could be a problem.
The people involved should expect their background to be checked for anything that can be used against them.
The activists might find themselves falling foul of some interpretation of the Code of Conduct.
The General Secretary has the authority to suspend a member, which means the member will not be able to take part in any party meetings or votes. When the member finally appears before the Conduct Committee, they will find the Conduct Committee is under leadership control. The leadership can drag things out while the member remains suspended and thereafter ignore a member’s right to an appeal.
The activists will have to guard against giving the leadership anything to use against them.
It will not be a Fair Fight.
What is the best chance of saving the SNP?
The best chance of saving the SNP would be a leadership challenge.
The leadership really have all the power so to effect change the leadership must change.
The leadership is voted by the members and although the activists and delegates to Conference come from one wing of the party. The wing that has been in the ascendant for the last decade – the identity politics, devolutionist wing. The ordinary members are longer-term and more committed to independence. Humza Yousaf was given every advantage in the 2023 contest and only narrowly won.
The SNP leadership election works to a strict timetable starting several months before the National Conference, so the first opportunity for a challenge is Summer 2025.
Greame McCormick secured the nominations to challenge for the leadership (100 nominations from 20 branches) a few months ago. Although he backed out, it demonstrates securing enough nominations, should not be an issue.
A leadership challenge in 2025 even if the candidate doesn’t win might wound Swinney enough that he will stand down.
The NEC, under the control of the Leader, sets the rules for the Leadership elections and HQ also under the control of the Leader runs the election and counts the votes.
A very public win for the activists might be enough to convince voters the SNP have changed and prevent the electoral drubbing the SNP face in the upcoming Holyrood election.
If it is unsuccessful then a challenge in 2026 when Swinney is on the ropes, after the likely Holyrood election defeat will be more likely to succeed but ‘continuity candidates’ and/or other establishment figures will throw their hat in the ring. And at this point, there will be a unionist Holyrood and a slow rebuild ahead for the SNP.
If SNP members are thinking of ‘fixing’ the SNP this is just a portion of what you are up against.
I wish you well.
Fortune favours the brave.
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